Globalisation is the result of many countries opening up to free trade and thus exploiting
cost advantages, which was used by the countries of the western world in particular to
increase their economic growth while keeping inflation low.
Following the transition of power in the USA, we are witnessing the first steps towards
the nationalisation of the US economy. What has been apparent since the election
campaign in the USA is becoming a reality thus: undesirable developments in
globalisation are being reversed. In addition to this official interpretation, however, many
of the achievements of globalisation are also being called into question.
The UK politicians undertook a comparable economical experiment by leaving the EU
(2016/18). Favourable estimates by the Centre for Economic Policy Research assume a
loss of growth for the British economy of 2-3%. However, the main damage was not
caused by tariffs, but by so-called non-tariff barriers to trade (changes to regulations).
It can be assumed that the countries affected are also currently developing alternative
reactions, such as those already announced by China with export restrictions for rare raw
materials.
The capital markets are reacting to this with considerable uncertainty and the search for
safe harbours for investments. This is likely to accompany us for many months to come,
as the search for a new equilibrium is difficult in a constantly changing environment.
Very positive developments can be seen in disruptive technologies, in which new market
participants place their products in competition, and thus enabling further advances in
productivity and favourable prices. We assume that we are only at the beginning of the
possibilities here and that very broad sections of the global economy will realise massive
advances in productivity. The very good profit situation of companies will enable the
necessary investments and support prices on the capital markets.
On the interest rate side, however, euphoria is not the order of the day, as inflation in
many regions and sectors is proving to be much more sluggish than assumed over the
last few quarters and the signs are not favourable given the trade conflicts that have
begun. Only marginal interest rate cuts are forecast for the US dollar area.