Stock market traders are generally regarded as sharply calculating merchants who know their risks. In reality, the majority of them are optimists who make big bets on the future. This is always evident when systemic breaks occur in the capital markets. The most recent example of such a trajectory was seen from the end of the central bank’s “negative interest rate policy” in November 2021, when high expectations were disappointed and capital markets corrected in a very short time.
Currently, the capital markets are once again struggling with an abrupt change – the continuation of globalization that was believed to be certain and a return to nationalism in many countries. However, in this situation, it is not possible to determine the new market equilibrium with a simple return calculation. Economics is also having a hard time with the seemingly global “socio-economic experiment”. The policy, which has been bound by rules in many areas so far, could easily be explained by well-researched scientific models. Now, however, many of these rules are being broken at the same time. This is similar to open-heart surgery of the economy. At the same time, a decline in good commercial and commercial policy principles can be seen. If we were to be in an academic world, it would be highly exciting to scientifically evaluate the processes and the result. In the meantime, however, real economic damage can occur if current policies are not reversed. Therefore, investors cannot sit back and trust in the future.
Until the macroeconomic chaos is sorted, it is essential to continuously analyse capital market and political risks and to position investments particularly broadly.